Newsletter – 15th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The euro strengthened significantly yesterday following a strong GDP q/q figure from Germany. The quarterly expansion of 0.8% has adjusted the y/y rate to 2.8% from a revised 2.3% in Q2.
  • The euro rallied against sterling and the US dollar following the data release.
  • GBP/EUR fell by 0.7% after opening at 1.1236 and closing at 1.1158.
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.1667 and closed just shy of 1.18 at 1.1797 representing a 1.1% move.
  • UK inflation data came in slightly weaker than expected yesterday with CPI y/y coming in at 3% vs 3.1% expected and RPI y/y coming in at 4.0% vs 4.1% expected.
  • GBP/USD continued to trade within its recent range between 1.3060 and 1.3190 opening at 1.3114, trading a low of 1.3073 before strengthening to close at 1.3165.
  • US PPI m/m came stronger than expected at 0.4% vs 0.1% expected and Core PPI m/m also came in at 0.4% vs 0.2%.
  • German ZEW Economic sentiment came weaker than expected at 18.7 vs 19.8.
Overnight
  • Japanese preliminary GDP q/q came in weaker than expected at 0.3% vs 0.4%. GBP/JPY is currently trading 148.88.
  • Australian wages price index q/q was also weaker than anticipated coming in at 0.5% vs 0.7%. GBP/AUD is trading at its highest level since June, currently trading at 1.7374.
Today
  • The euro has continued to strengthen overnight following yesterday’s German GDP data.
  • At 9.30am we expect average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change and unemployment rate from the UK.
  • Following that MPC member Broadbent is expected to speak at the LSE at 1pm.
  • At 1.30pm all attention turns to the US with inflation and retail sales data due at 1.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1146 -0.12
GBP/USD 1.3192 +0.20
EUR/USD 1.1836 +0.32
AUD/USD 0.7598 -0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3M/Y 2.1% 2.2%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 2.0K 1.7K
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3%
13:30 USD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.5%
13:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.0%
13:30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.6%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M 2.2M