Newsletter – 15th March 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The euro weakened against both the US dollar and sterling yesterday after ECB President Mario Draghi warned that there is still some uncertainty in regards to the upward trend of eurozone inflation and the downside risks have not disappeared,
  • The euro weakened off the back of the dovish tone and GBP/EUR gained by a fifth of a percent on Wednesday opening at 1.1266 and closing at 1.1290.
  • EUR/USD weakened to close 1.2366 after opening at 1.2389 representing a 0.18% decrease on the day.
  • The ECB’s Mersch said that the ECB are not ready to change interest rates and will take non-conventional measures before considering conventional ones. Coeure said the economic expansion is very strong but inflation is not at it’s desired level yet.
  • GBP/USD had a quiet day closing within 2 points of its opening rate at 1.3961.
  • In terms of economic data core retail sales m/m came in weaker than expected from the US  at 0.2% vs 0.4% and retail sales m/m also came in weaker at -0.1% vs 0.3%. We did have data from the US which did impress with PPI m/m beating expectations coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% and then there was core PPI m/m which came in as expected at 0.2%.
  • New Zealand GDP q/q came in weaker than expected at 0.6% vs 0.8%.
  • Chinese PPI m/m came better than expected overnight at 0.3% vs 0.2%.
  • We have a relatively quiet day ahead in terms of economic data with only manufacturing and unemployment claims data to be released from the US at 12.30pm.
  • Later this evening will we see manufacturing data released from New Zealand in the form of Business NZ manufacturing index.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1285 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.3959 -0.02
EUR/USD 1.2362 -0.03
AUD/USD 0.7866 -0.13


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 14.9 13.1
12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 23.1 25.8
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 227K 231K
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 55.6