Newsletter – 15th June 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The European Central Bank dented the euro yesterday after dismissing the idea of an interest rate hike in the summer next year, leading analysts to cut their forecasts for the single currency.
  • The ECB said it will continue buying €30b European government bonds each month until September 2018 then that will reduce to €15b until December then to zero after that – you would usually expect this to boost the euro.
  • The European rate was held at 0.00% as expected however by quashing a summer 2019 rate rise, the euro feel against its peers.
    • GBP/EUR rallied by 1.05% yesterday eventually closing at 1.1457 after opening at 1.1337.
    • EUR/USD fell by 1.9% after opening at 1.1791 and closing at 1.1566.
  • UK retail sales performed well coming in at 1.3% vs 0.5% expected.
  • Canadian NHPI m/m came in weaker than anticipated at 0.00% vs 0.2%
  • US retail sales and core retail sales beat expectations coming in at 0.9% vs 0.5% and 0.8% vs 0.4%, respectively.
  • Unemployment claims came in at 218K vs 223K.
  • New Zealand business manufacturing index came in at 54.5
  • The Bank of Japan policy rate came in at -0.10% as expected.
  • At 10am we expect the final CPI y/y figure from the Eurozone.
  • At 1.30pm we expect foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales m/m from Canada before empire state manufacturing index, capacity utilisation rate and industrial production m/m from the US at 2.15pm.
  • GBP/EUR is off a tenth of a percent this morning with EUR/USD pushing up 0.25%.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1443 -0.12
GBP/USD 1.3267 +0.07
EUR/USD 1.1592 +0.22
AUD/USD 0.7462 -0.21


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 5.49B 6.15B
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.6% 1.4%
13:20 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.1 20.1
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1% 78.0%
15:00 USD Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.5 98.0