Newsletter – 15th June 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Yesterday was a relatively quiet day in the markets with GBP/EUR closing only 7 points lower than its opening rate at 1.1364 and GBP/USD barely a point lower on the close at 1.2751.
  • We saw mixed unemployment data from the UK yesterday with the average earnings index 3m/y falling short of expectations at 2.1% vs 2.4% but claiming count change did beat estimates by coming in at 7.3K vs 12.5K expected. The unemployment rate remained at 4.6%.
  • Lib Dem Tim Farron stepped down as leader of the party yesterday citing a conflict between his faith and his party leadership.
  • We saw the FOMC increase rates as expected despite recent disappointing economic data from the US.
  • US inflation and retail sales data missed expectations as CPI m/m, core CPI m/m and retails sales m/m fell short coming in at -0.1% vs 0.2%, 0.1% vs 0.2% and -0.3% vs 0.1%, respectively.
  • US President Donald Trump will be investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice. (BBC News).
Overnight
  • New Zealand GDP q/q came in short of expectations at 0.5% vs 0.7% expected.
  • Australian unemployment data beat estimates with employment change coming in at 42K vs 9.7K expected and the unemployment rate came in at 5.5% vs 5.7% expected.
Today
  • UK retail sales missed this morning coming in at -1.2% vs 0.9% expected.
  • At 12pm all eyes turn to the Bank of England with the MPC expected to keep rates unchanged. Voting is expected to be 7 in favour of no change and 1 in favour of a rate increase.
  • This afternoon we have unemployment claims for the US along with industrial production m/m.
  • BoE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Mansion House Bankers and Merchants dinner in London at 9pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1368 +0.04
GBP/USD 1.2697 +0.41
EUR/USD 1.1168 -0.44
AUD/USD 0.7591 +0.04

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:00 GBP MPC Bank Rate Votes 1-0-7 1-0-7
12:00 GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00 GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25%
13:30 USA Unemployment Claims 241K 245K
14:15 USA Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 1.0%