Newsletter – 15th August 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Inflation in the UK nudged back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in June, with the Consumer Price Index hitting 2.1% on an annual basis. Economists had forecast inflation to come in at 1.9%, however according to the ONS a rise in the cost of hotel rooms, video games and consoles, and less discounting on clothes in the summer sales all contributed to the increase.
  • The Flash reading of Eurozone GDP for Q2 of 2019 came in at 0.2% as expected.
  • Eurozone Industrial Production m/m -1.6% (-1.4% Exp).
  • US Import Prices m/m 0.2% (0.0% Exp).
  • A group of MP’s, led by former Chancellor Philip Hammond have sent PM Boris Johnson a letter stating that they are ‘alarmed by the red lines that you have drawn, which, on the face of it, appear to eliminate the chance of reaching agreement with the EU’. The MP’s called for compromise and commitment to a deal that would reassure both MP’s and currency markets.
  • Speaking yesterday, UK PM Boris Johnson said the EU needs to compromise to avoid the threat of a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson added that there was a ‘terrible collaboration’ going on between the EU and those who wished to block Brexit.
Overnight

  • Solid employment data has the Aussie Dollar on the front foot this morning in FX markets with 41,100 more Aussies in employment in July, that far exceeded the 14,200 expected. The overall unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%.
  • Japan Revised Industrial Production m/m -3.3% (-3.6% Exp).
  • Swiss PPI m/m -0.1% (-0.2% Exp).
Today
  • UK Retail Sales will be in focus this morning, with a decline of -0.3% expected.
  • This afternoon there is a raft of US economic data, with Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing the key numbers at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0827 +0.06
GBP/USD 1.2076 +0.20
EUR/USD 1.1152 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.6778 +0.47

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 1.0%
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.4%
13.30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.1 21.8
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 2.1 4.3
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 212K 209K
14.15 USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.0%
15.00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.1% 0.3%