- Mixed UK jobs data kicked off trading yesterday morning. Despite the number of those claiming unemployment benefit rising by 6,200 (2,300 Exp) the overall Unemployment rate fell to a new 43-year low of 4.0% during July. Unemployment had been expected to remain at 4.2%.
- The record low in Unemployment did not not translate into strong wage growth however. In fact at 2.4% wages grew at their slowest pace in 9 months, a figure that will not be welcomed by the Bank of England whose recent rate hike was partly based on expectations of strengthening wages.
- The Pound did very briefly rally following this data, however with the exception of the Euro the Pound closed the day down against it’s other major currency counterparts.
- Most notably the Pound fell to its lowest level since the end of June 2017 against the US Dollar, briefly trading down at 1.2704.
- Economic growth in the Eurozone was better than originally forecast in the second quarter of 2018, with the GDP reading of 0.4% bettering the earlier estimate of 0.3%.
- That GDP reading was however dampened somewhat by a sharp fall in Industrial Production, with a decline of -0.7% during June. A fall of -0.3% was expected, but the sharper decline was attributed to a collapse in machinery and equipment investment.
- Speaking yesterday, Turkish President Erdogan has said Turkey will boycott electronic products from the United States.
- US NFIB Small Business Index 107.9 (106.9 Exp)
- US Import Prices m/m 0.0% (0.1% Exp)
- Australia Wage Price Index q/q 0.6% as expected
- Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment -2.3% (3.9% Exp)
- According to Reuters the US is preparing further sanctions on Turkey is jailed Pastor Brunson is not released.
- Ahead of a 3-day tour of Europe, UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has called on th EU to change its approach to Brexit as the risk of a No-Deal Brexit continues to increase.
- UK inflation data is the key print this morning. Due at 9.30am inflation is forecast to rise to 2.5% y/y.
- This afternoon there will be a raft of US economic data, with Retail Sales headlining at 1.30pm.
- Worth noting it is a French and Italian Bank Holiday today.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09.30||GBP||PPI Input m/m||0.1%||0.2%|
|13.30||USD||Retail Sales m/m||0.1%||0.5%|
|13.30||USD||Empire State Manufacturing Index||20.1||22.6|
|14.15||USD||Capacity Utilization Rate||78.2%||78.0%|
|14.15||USD||Industrial Production m/m||0.3%||0.6%|
|15.00||USD||Business Inventories m/m||0.2%||0.4%|