Newsletter – 15th August 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was just the one economic data release of note yesterday.
  • That came in the form of Eurozone Industrial Production m/m and it dissapointed. The print for June showed production dipped by -0.6%, worse than the expected fall of -0.4%. This figure did underpin a bit of Euro weakness for the day’s trading, however losses were fairly limited.
  • The main beneficiary of the quiet day was the US Dollar, as the Greenback enjoyed a rare positive day of late, making solid gains against it’s major currency counterparts by the close of the day.
  • According to an FT report, pro-EU MP’s from across political parties broadly now accept that the UK will leave the EU in March 2019, however many still believe there is still time to steer Theresa May away from so called ‘Hard’ Brexit.
  • According to German Finance Minister Schaeuble we will soon see an end to the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy in the foreseeable future, but interest rates will remain low.
Overnight

  • Swiss PPI m/m 0.0% (0.0% Exp)
  • Japan Revised Industrial Production m/m 2.2% (1.6% Exp)
  • German Prelim GDP q/q 0.6% (0.7% Exp)
  • Minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting reiterated that economic activity and inflation growth would be more slow than currently forecast should the Aussie Dollar continue to strengthen.
  • Speaking overnight Fed Member William Dudley suggested that were the US economy to evolve as he expects then he would support another rate hike before the end of 2017.
Today
  • Fortunately and in stark contrast to yesterday we have a plethora of data set for release today.
  • Key this morning will be UK inflation data at 9.30am, with an expected CPI reading of 2.7%.
  • Turning to this afternoon and US Retail Sales is the key print at 1.30pm.
  • Please note that today is a French and Italian bank holiday (Assumption Day).

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1015 +0.13
GBP/USD 1.2937 -0.20
EUR/USD 1.1741 -0.32
AUD/USD 0.7835 -0.19

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 2.7% 2.6%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 0.4% -0.4%
09.30 GBP RPI y/y 3.5% 3.5%
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2%
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.1 9.8
13.30 USD Import Prices m/m 0.1% -0.2%
14.30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
15.00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%
TBC NZD GDT Price Index (Dairy) -1.6%