Newsletter – 15th April 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • There was very little in the way of high impact data released Friday.
  • Eurozone Industrial Production declined by less than expected during February. A month-on-month fall of -0.5% had been forecast, however a fall of -0.2% was recorded as the surge in energy production during January was reversed owning to milder February temperatures.
  • UK Chancellor Philip Hammond acknowledged that another vote on a new Brexit referendum was highly likely to be put to Parliament again at some point. However he added that the timing would be incredibly tight to be able to hold a referendum before the 31st October deadline.
  • China’s exports rebounded to a 5-month high in March, however imports fell for a 4th straight month. The overall trade balance showed a surplus of $32.6Bn in March.
  • According to ECB Member Jens Weidmann the German economy could grow by less than 1% this year as trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty weigh heavily on investment. Weidmann added that the IMF’s current projection of 0.8% annual growth was entirely plausible.
  • US Import Prices m/m 0.6% (0.4% Exp)
  • US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.9 (98.1 Exp)
Over The Weekend

  • Brexit headlines may ease off for a short period as MP’s head off on their Easter recess. However speaking over the weekend, Tory Cabinet Minister David Liddington said the Government and the Labour party were testing out various ways to move things forward and to break the current Parliamentary impasse amidst cross-party talks. He said the talks would continue over the Easter recess and that both sides had a fair bit in common on a future customs arrangement, albeit more compromise was still required.
  • The UK Government has reportedly put contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit on hold as the risk of exiting the EU with no-deal in place has subsided.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi spoke with a degree of optimism over the weekend whilst talking about the chances of a rebound in the Euro-area economy this year. Draghi suggested that some of the factors that were holding back growth now appear to be waning.
  • UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m 1.1% (+0.4% Previous)
  • Swiss Producer Price Index m/m 0.3% (0.2% Exp)
Today
  • Very little on the data calendar today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1575 +0.24
GBP/USD 1.3101 +0.28
EUR/USD 1.1317 +0.16
AUD/USD 0.7169 -0.03

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 USD Fed Member Evans Speaks
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.1 3.7
15.30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
17.00 GBP BOE Member Haskel Speaks
18.00 USD Fed Member Evans Speaks