Newsletter – 15 March 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling struggled yesterday against its peers, falling by half a percent against the US dollar.
  • At one point GBP/EUR was down by 0.7% before a late recovery which meant it only closed down by one tenth of a percent.
  • The news headlines have been shared by two stories that weigh on sterling. Firstly, the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s speech on Monday in which she formally stated her intention to request a second referendum on Scotland’s independence.
  • This is likely to be a slow drag on the pound over the coming months although the resilience sterling has shown since the announcement has been surprising.
  • We also have the fact that PM May has been given the green light to trigger Article 50 although this should not come as a surprise to investors and has likely been priced in to the markets.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment came in softer than expected yesterday at 12.8 vs 13.2 expected. GBP/EUR closed the day at 1.1452.
  • US PPI data beat expectations with month-on-month figure coming in at 0.3% vs 0.1% expected and core PPI m/m also coming in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. GBP/USD closed at 1.2153.
  • Last night we had current account date from New Zealand come in at -2.34B vs -2.43B expected.
  • Swiss PPI m/m fell short of expectations this morning at -0.2% vs the estimated figure of 0.4%.
  • Plenty of data to look out for today before the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow afternoon.
  • We have unemployment and earning data from the UK at 9.30am before our attention turns to the US this afternoon.
  • At 12.30pm we have inflation data and retail sales data from the USA followed by the FOMC statement and rate decision at 6pm. This is then followed by the all-important FOMC press conference at 6.30pm.
  • At 9.45pm New Zealand will be releasing their GDP q/q figure for the last quarter of 2016.


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1499 +0.41
GBP/USD 1.2226 +0.61
EUR/USD 1.0631 +0.27
AUD/USD 0.7585 +0.38


Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.4% 2.6%
09.30 UK Claimant Count Change 3.2k -42.4k
09.30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.8%
12.30 USA CPI m/m 0.0% 0.6%
12.30 USA Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
12.30 USA Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.8%
12.30 USA Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.4%
12.30 USA Empire State Manufacturing Index 15.3 18.7
18.00 USA FOMC Economic Projections
18.00 USA FOMC Statement
18.00 USA Federal Funds Rate <1.00% <0.75%
18.30 USA FOMC Press Conference
21.45 NZD GDP q/q 0.7% 1.1%