Newsletter – 15 February 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling lost ground on its counterparts yesterday as UK inflation fell short of expectations. UK CPI y/y came in at 1.8% vs the 1.9% which was widely expected. This data is the highest for two-and-a-half years and has been mainly attributed to the rising price of fuel.
  • GBP/EUR fell by just under one quarter of a percent after opening at 1.1814 and closing at 1.1786. GBP/USD also fell but by over half a percent after opening at 1.2526 and closing at 1.2465.
  • This is partially explained by the weaker-than-expected UK inflation data but we also saw US PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m beat expectations at 0.6% vs 0.3% expected and 0.4% vs 0.2% expected, respectively.
  • Richmond Fed President Lacker said the US Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates sooner than markets now seem to expect given that any new policies by the Trump administration likely will force the Fed’s hand.
  • Very little data to report from the overnight session with only New Motor Vehicles Sales m/m from Australia coming in at 0.6%.
  • GBP/AUD has been trading between 1.64 and 1.62 for most February and we currently are trading towards the bottom end of that range at 1.6223.
  • We kick off today with UK employment data in the form of average earnings Index 3m/y, claimant count change and unemployment rate at 9.30am.
  • Following that we have trade balance data from the Eurozone at 10am before inflation and retail sales data from the US at 1.30pm.


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1795 +0.08
GBP/USD 1.2459 -0.05
EUR/USD 1.0561 -0.10
AUD/USD 0.7683 +0.35


Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.8% 2.8%
09.30 GBP Claimant Count Change 1.1K -10.1K
09.30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.8%
10.00 EUR Trade Balance 22.5B 22.7B
13.30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.4% 1.5%
13.30 USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
13.30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
13.30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.6%
15.00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies