Newsletter – 14th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling spiked to its highest level against the euro since April yesterday as reports emerged that the UK and EU negotiators had agreed on the text of a draft withdrawal agreement.
  • GBP/EUR traded a high of 1.1551 before pulling back late in the evening to close at 1.1485.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2848 and traded a high of 1.3047 before closing at 1.2968.
  • UK average earnings index 3m/y came in as expected at 3.0% and unemployment rate came in worse than expected at 4.1% 4.0%.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment came in at -24.1.
Overnight
  • Australian Westpac consumer sentiment came in at 2.8%.
  • Japanese prelim GDP q/q came in as expected at -0.3%.
  • Australian wage price index q/q came in at 0.6%.
  • Fixed asset investment ytd/y from China came in as expected at 5.7% and industrial production came in at 5.9%.
Today
  • PM Theresa May will host a special cabinet meeting at 2pm to seek the backing of ministers.
  • May has been meeting one-to-one with ministers on the draft agreement.
  • The agreement is reported to contain a UK-wide customs backstop aimed at preventing a hard border. There is no additional Northern Ireland-only backstop.
  • Leading UK Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg have criticised the agreement saying it would keep the UK under EU control.
  • German preliminary GDP q/q came in weaker than expected at -0.2% vs -0.1%.
  • UK CPI came in at 2.4% vs 2.5% expected. PPI input m/m came in at 0.8% vs 0.6% and RPI y/y at 3.3% vs 3.4%.
  • Eurozone flash GDP q/q came in at 0.2% as expected.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1450 -0.31
GBP/USD 1.2900 -0.49
EUR/USD 1.1265 -0.21
AUD/USD 0.7195 -0.30

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
14:30 USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
14:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%