Newsletter – 14th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was literally no economic data to report on during yesterday’s trading, which even for a Monday is surprising.
  • Sterling continued to come under pressure throughout the days trading following those earlier reports that up to forty Tory MP’s are calling for Theresa May to step down as PM. They would of course need a further 8 MP’s on board before they could call for a leadership challenge.
  • GBP/USD traded as low as 1.3061, before closing just back above the 1.3100 handle.
  • GBP/EUR fell to a days low of 1.1203, before recovering to close around 1.1230.
  • Speaking yesterday US Fed Member Harker said he had lightly penciled in a rate hike for December. He noted his dilemma was that there is very little slack within the labour market, however soft inflation continues to be a cause for concern.
  • In a blog posted yesterday, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane noted that price rises across the whole economy are currently well above the BOE’s 2% target, adding that they are likely to remain above-target for the next few years as well.
  • The UK Brexit Secretary David Davis has said the UK Parliament will have a full vote on the final Brexit Deal, following pressure from a number of Pro-EU Tory MP’s.
  • Speaking in Zurich yesterday afternoon the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda said the central bank will continue to persist with ‘powerful monetary easing’ in a bid to nurture positive inflation developments. Japan’s inflation still remains well below the BOJ’s 2% target, standing at 0.7% in September.
Overnight

  • US Federal Budget Balance -63.2Bn (-58.2Bn Exp)
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence 8 (8 Previously)
  • China Industrial Production y/y 6.2% (6.3% Exp)
  • German Prelim GDP q/q 0.8% (0.6% Exp)
  • German Final CPI m/m 0.0% as expected
Today
  • Plenty of economic data this morning, with UK CPI headlining at 9.30am. Eurozone GDP and German Business Confidence are due at the same time.
  • A good number of the world’s most important central bankers are also due to speak this morning as part of an ECB conference.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1208 -0.29
GBP/USD 1.3117 +0.02
EUR/USD 1.1705 +0.33
AUD/USD 0.7620 -0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 3.1% 3.0%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 0.8% 0.4%
10.00 EUR ECB President Drgahi Speaks
10.00 EUR Eurozone Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
10.00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 19.8 17.6
10.00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
10.00 JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
10.00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
17.30 GBP BOE Member Cunliffe Speaks