Newsletter – 14th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Eurozone Industrial Production was better than expected in January up +1.4% against the 1.0% rise forecast.
  • The UK Government released their plans for import tariffs in the event of a No-Deal Brexit yesterday. Ahead of the vote in the commons, the Government said the tariffs would be temporary and ultimately would see a cut to overall tariff levels. Whilst the EU would see tariff-free trade slip from 100% to 82% of all imports, the Rest of the World would see tariff free trade on 92% of all imports, up massively from the current 56%.
  • It would have been easy to forget the Chancellor was due to deliver is Spring Statement yesterday afternoon with the more pressing Brexit issues at hand, but some of the key points included:
    • The Chancellor said he would free up Billions of Pounds for extra spending or tax cuts if MP’s could break its Brexit impasse. A Deal dividend.
    • The Chancellor said he has £26.6 Billion to potentially play with due to borrowing being lower than expected.
    • The Chancellor warned the UK would face significant disruption in the short to medium term if it left the EU with no-deal, and that the economy would be smaller and less prosperous in the long term.
    • UK Growth forecasts were lowered due to continuing Brexit uncertainty and a slowing of the world economy. GDP for 2019 was revised down to +1.2% from +1.6% back in October.
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.1% (+0.1% Exp)
  • US PPI m/m 0.1% (0.2% Exp)
  • US Construction Spending m/m 1.3% (0.4% Exp)
Overnight

  • The headline overnight is of course that UK MP’s have voted to block a No-Deal Brexit. Whilst the vote wasn’t binding, there was a clear majority of 321 to 278 in favour of blocking the UK’s exit of the EU without having a deal in place. A number of Cabinet Ministers also went defied the Whip and voted against the Government, with only one resignation as a result.
  • Following yet another defeat and as expected, shortly after the result UK PM Theresa May announced that Parliament would now debate and vote on whether to extend Article 50. Still not giving up on her own deal, the PM warned MP’s that a short technical extension would only likely be on offer if a deal was in place and that any lengthier extension could result in the UK having to put candidates forward for European Parliament elections in May.
  • With the prospect of a No-Deal off the table the Pound rallied in FX space yesterday evening. GBP/USD hit a 9-month high of 1.3380, whilst GBP/EUR rallied to 1.1801 and it’s highest level since May 2017.
  • Echoing what Theresa May said yesterday evening, Chancellor Phillip Hammond has also warned that the EU may insist on a long delay to Article 50 if there is no clear deal that could be passed were a short extension granted.
  • German Final CPI m/m 0.4% (0.5% Exp)
  • French Final CPI m/m 0.0% as expected
Today
  • Not much in the way of key economic data ahead, however there are some more low key US releases after midday.
  • The focus once again will be on sterling today, as once more attention turns to the House of Commons and the next key Brexit vote which will be on whether MP’s want to extend Article 50. However by Parliament blocking a no-deal exit an extension would appear inevitable.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1716 -0.31
GBP/USD 1.3257 -0.57
EUR/USD 1.1312 -0.11
AUD/USD 0.7060 -0.47

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12.30 USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% -0.5%
12.30 USD Unemployment Claims 225K 223K
14.00 USD New Home Sales 622K 621K
TBC GBP Parliament Votes (Ext to Art50) 0.2% -0.1%