Newsletter – 14th June 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/EUR traded within its recent range yesterday opening at 1.1383, trading a high of 1.1386 and a low of 1.1331 before closing at 1.1340.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3371 and traded a low of 1.3308 before closing at 1.3374.
  • UK CPI came in at expected at 2.4% but PPI input m/m came in stronger at 2.8% vs 1.7% expected.
  • US PPI m/m and core PPI m/m both came in stronger than expected at 0.5% vs 0.3% and 0.3% vs 0.2% expected.
  • The Fed rate was set up a quarter point at <2.00% as expected and in the following press conference, a hawkish message was sent to the markets with suggestions that more rate hikes are coming and at a faster rate than expected.
  • Australian employment change came in weaker than expected at 12.0K vs 18.8K yet the unemployment rate came in better than expected at 5.4% vs 5.5%.
  • Chinese fixed asset investment ytd/y was weaker at 6.1% vs 7.0% and industrial production y/y came in roughly as expected at 6.8% vs 6.9%.
  • UK retail sales m/m impressed this morning coming in at 1.3% vs 0.5% expected.
  • At 12:45 we have the main refinancing rate from the Eurozone which is expected to be held at 0.00%.
  • At 1.30pm we will have the EU press conference following the rate announcement alongside retail sales and unemployment data from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1371 +0.27
GBP/USD 1.3437 +0.47
EUR/USD 1.1815 +0.20
AUD/USD 0.7561 -0.22


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:45 EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
13:30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.2% 0.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.3%
13:30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.3%
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 223K 222K