Newsletter – 14th August 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling lost some of Monday’s gains on the euro on Tuesday despite the turmoil between Turkey  and US rumbling on. The US last week imposed sanctions on Turkey following its refusal to extradite a US preacher imprisoned on the country.
  • This has weighed heavily on the more exposed euro halting GBP/EUR’s downward trajectory. However GBP/EUR yesterday opened at 1.1199 and traded a high of 1.1228 before closing at 1.1187.
  • President Trump’s top national security aide John Bolton warned Turkey’s ambassador that the US has nothing further to negotiate until the detained American pastor is freed.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2743 and closed at 1.2765 representing a 0.17% increase on the day.
  • EUR/USD pulled some losses back yesterday opening at 1.1371 before gaining 0.34% to close at 1.1410.
  • The Times are reporting that Conservative Brexiteers are planning to publish their own blueprint for a hard Brexit in September in a direct challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May.
  • The US has passed a new law the strengthens the government’s power to review and potentially block business deals involving foreign firms (BBC News).
  • Chinese fixed asset investment ytd/y came in slightly weaker than expected at 5.5% vs 6.0% and industrial production y/y also came in weaker at 6.0% vs 6.3%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.7614, 1.9399 and 142.22, respectively.
  • German preliminary GDP q/q came in slightly better than expected at 0.5% vs 0.4%.
  • At 9.30am we will get the latest average earnings index, claimant count change and unemployment rate figures from the UK.
  • Following that at 10am we flash GDP q/q from the Eurozone and German ZEW economic sentiment.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1214 +0.24
GBP/USD 1.2813 +0.38
EUR/USD 1.1425 +0.14
AUD/USD 0.7273 +0.07


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 2.5%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 2.3K 7.8K
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.2%
10:00 EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -20.1 -24.7