Newsletter – 14 February 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Incredibly slow day in terms of data releases or key speakers yesterday.
  • Sterling fared particularly well yesterday as it climbed to within a whisker of a 2017 high versus the Euro at 1.1825, whilst the Pound settled comfortably above the 1.2500 handle versus the US Dollar.
  • Speaking yesterday IMF Chief Lagarde said the organisation was doing its upmost to reach an agreement on bailout loans with Greece but that the IMF could not abandon its principles and give the country special treatment.
  • According to Austrian Chancellor Kern the EU must make sure the UK is in a worse position when it leaves the European Union, or risk representing a capitulation.
Overnight

  • Chinese inflation y/y was better than expected at 2.5% (2.4% Exp) and far surpassed the 2.1% rise previously reported.
  • More hawkish rhetoric from US Fed Member Kaplan overnight, stating that he thought rate hikes should come sooner rather than later in order to have a gradual and patient removal of accommodation at a later stage.
  • Data releases this morning:
    • German Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% (0.5% Exp)
    • Swiss PPI m/m 0.4% (0.3% Exp)
Today

  • Compared to yesterday we have a relative deluge of key data in the day ahead. Key this morning will be UK Inflation data, with an expected CPI reading of 1.9%.
  • The main event of the afternoon and potentially of the month will be the US Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s address to the US Senate Banking Committee on the central bank’s monetary policy report. This address could set the tone for the Dollar over the coming months and every word Yellen says will be closely scrutinised by markets and traders.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1788 -0.26
GBP/USD 1.2530 +0.04
EUR/USD 1.0626 +0.33
AUD/USD 0.7683 +0.57

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 1.6%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 1.0% 1.8%
10.00 EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
10.00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 15.1 16.6
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
15.00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
18.00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks