Newsletter – 13th July 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Government has published the White Paper that outlines UK relations with EU with Prime Minster Theresa May saying that it delivers on the Brexit that the British people voted for.
    • The White Paper contains a line in which the UK proposes a ‘free trade area for goods’ which is very close to the single market in all but name and means the UK will have to agree the EU’s rules and regulations in these areas.
    • The Paper says that the European Court of Justice’s role within the UK will come to an end.
    • The UK will seek to strike its own trade deals around the world even though it would be bound by EU rules and regulations.
    • According to the BBC, Brexiteers and the EU both think the proposal is too complex to work but the Government disagrees and says that it wants to be at the cutting edge of global customs policy.
    • Leading pro-Brexit Tory rebel Jacob Rees-Mogg said that the paper is a ‘pale imitation’ of the vision set out by former Brexit minister David Davis and that it is a ‘bad deal for Britain’.
    • Michel Barnier said that he would analyse the paper with the European Parliament and was looking forward to negotiations with the UK next week.
  • GBP/EUR and GBP/USD were relatively subdued yesterday with GBP/EUR closing the day at 1.1315 (up 0.07%) and GBP/USD closing where it opened at 1.3204.
  • Canadian NHPI m/m came in slightly weaker than expected at 0.0% vs 0.1%.
  • From the US, we saw CPI m/m come in slightly weaker than expected at 0.1% vs 0.2%, core CPI came in as expected at 0.2% and unemployment claims came in better than expected at 214K vs 226K.
Overnight
  • Business Manufacturing Index from New Zealand came in at 52.8 and Chinese trade balance was better than expected at 262B vs 188B.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading 1.7769, 1.9469 and 148.03, respectively.
Today
  • Sterling has come off this morning across the board following comments by US President Donald Trump the the UK will ‘probably not’ get a trade deal  if the Prime Minister’s Brexit plan goes ahead.
  • In an interview with The Sun he said that PM May’s plan would ‘probably kill the deal’ as it would mean that the US would be dealing the EU instead of the UK.
  • GBP/EUR is currently trading down a quarter of a percent whereas GBP/USD is trading down 0.63%.
  • President Trump also stated that he thought former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson would make a ‘great Prime Minister’.
urrency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1290 -0.22%
GBP/USD 1.3119 -0.64%
EUR/USD 1.1620 -0.43%
AUD/USD 0.7379 -0.39%
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:00 GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.1 98.2