Newsletter – 13th February 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Prime Minister Theresa May asked MPs for more time to secure changes to the Irish backstop clause in the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
  • Mrs May promised to update the commons again on the 26th February and if there are no improvements by then, to give MPs a non-binding vote on the next steps.
  • In updating MPs, PM May said that, as expected, the EU had reiterated their position that the withdrawal agreement is dependent on the problematic Irish backstop.
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused the prime minister of “running down the clock” with the UK expected to leave the EU on the 29th March.
  • Sterling lost ground on the euro yesterday. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1400, traded a high of 1.1417, a low of 1.1378 and closed at 1.1381 representing a loss of 0.21% on the day.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2853, traded a high of 1.2909 before closing at 1.2890 representing a 0.29% increase on Tuesday.
  • It was a quiet day in terms of economic data. US JOLTS job openings came in better than expected at 7.34M vs 6.48M.
  • US President Donald Trump said the US could extend the China trade talks deadline but is “not inclined to”.
  • Trump also said he is unhappy with the funding deal for the US-Mexico border wall but does not expect government to shutdown again. 
Overnight
  • New Zealand interest rates were held at 1.75% as expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.8132, 1.8909 and 142.76, respectively.
Today
  • We will see the release of UK inflation data at 9.30am – CPY y/y, PPI input m/m and RPY y/y.
  • Follow that, at 1.30pm, we expected to see CPI m/m and core CPI m/m from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1383 +0.02
GBP/USD 1.2900 +0.08
EUR/USD 1.1331 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7116 +0.32

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 2.1%
09:30 GBP PPI input m/m 0.2% -1.0%
09:30 GBP RPI y/y 2.6% 2.7%
13:30 USD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
13:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%