Newsletter – 13th February 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Unsurprisingly yesterday’s trading was fairly muted with no data set for release.
  • GBP/USD traded in a tight range all day, confined between a low of 1.3797 and a high of 1.3875.
  • GBP/EUR was confined to an even tighter range of around 0.5 Cents, trading a low of 1.1242 and a high of 1.1306.
  • Speaking yesterday morning Bank of England Member Vlieghe pointed to tightening Labour markets putting pressure on wages to rise. Vlieghe added that this tightening coupled with the strengthening global economy was telling the BOE further rate rises are likely to be appropriate.
  • Speaking later in the day, one of Vlieghe’s colleagues, and fellow BOE Member McCafferty said the UK economy was holding up relatively well and so it was likely rates would need to go up slightly earlier than previously thought.
Overnight

  • Japan PPI y/y 2.7% as expected
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence 12 (10 Prior)
  • Swiss PPI m/m 0.3% (0.2% Exp)
  • South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) will formally ask for President Jacob Zuma to resign after he refused to do so earlier, reports say. Should Mr Zuma refuse, he will face a vote of confidence in parliament which he would widely be expected to lose (BBC News).
Today
  • UK Inflation data will dominate this morning, with a raft of measures set for release at 9.30am. However the key print will be CPI y/y with inflation expected to drop to 2.9%.
  • There is very little in the way of data or key speakers for the rest of the day.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1242 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3869 +0.25
EUR/USD 1.2333 +0.35
AUD/USD 0.7874 +0.19

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 2.9% 3.0%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 0.7% 0.1%
09.30 GBP RPI y/y 4.1% 4.1%
11.00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 106.2 104.9
13.00 USD Fed Member Mester Speaks