Newsletter – 13th December 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Theresa May will remain as Conservative leader for the foreseeable future after surviving a confidence vote last night.
  • She secured 200 votes while 117 MPs voted against her which means she remains as Prime Minister and another vote of confidence cannot be triggered for 12 months.
  • Before the vote, Mrs May had stood in front of her own MPs and told them that she will not stand in the next election.
  • The Prime Minister can now attempt to renegotiate her deal with the EU to appease MPs and get the deal through the meaningful vote when that is rearranged.
  • Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said the result was a poor one for the Prime Minister and she should ‘follow constitution’ and resign.
  • Sterling rallied as soon as it became very likely that the Prime Minister would win the vote.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1030, and rallied to trade a high of 1.1148 before closing at 1.1102 representing a 0.65% increase on the day.
    • GBP/USD opened at 1.2486 and rallied to trade a high 1.2670 before closing at 1.2623 representing a 1.10% increase on Wednesday.
  • US CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in as expected at 0.0% and 0.2%
  • The Swiss Libor rate came in at -0.75% as expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.7496, 1.8417 and 143.61, respectively.
  • Theresa May will today travel to Brussels to join the EU summit seeking legally binding pledges from EU leaders on the Irish backstop.
  • At 12:45 the ECB are expected to keep rates at 0.00% with the press conference following at 1.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1126 +0.22
GBP/USD 1.2661 +0.30
EUR/USD 1.1378 -0.13
AUD/USD 0.7236 +0.28
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:45 EUR Main refinancing rate 0.00% 0.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference