Newsletter – 13th December 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK inflation rose to its highest level in just under six years in November. Coming in at 3.1%, the Office for National Statistics said that airfares and computer games contributed to the increase.
  • PPI input m/m came in stronger than expected at 1.8% vs 1.6% expected but RPI y/y was softer than expected at 3.9% vs 4.1%.
  • After two days of losses sterling gained in value against euro moving up by a modest 12 points on the day after opening at 1.1329 and closing at 1.1341.
  • Sterling did however lose value against the US dollar with GBP/USD closing down 1.3317 after opening 1.3337.
  • US PPI m/m came in as expected at 0.4% and core PPI m/m came in at 0.3% which beat the expected figure of 0.2%. 
Overnight
  • Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a US senate seat for Alabama. Republican Roy Moore was unexpectedly beaten but refused to concede defeat, saying that it’s “not over”.
  • The Republican majority in the senate is now only 51-49 so the they can only afford to lose 1 seat. In the event of a 50-50 tie, Vice President Mike Pence will have the casting vote.
Today
  • This morning we have seen UK average earnings index 3m/y come in as expected at 2.5%. Claimant count change was worse than expected at 5.9K vs 3.3K and the unemployment rate was also higher than expected at 4.3% vs 4.2% expected.
  • This afternoon we have inflation data from the US at 1.30pm before crude oil inventories at 3.30pm.
  • President Trump is expected to speak about tax reform in Washington DC at some point this afternoon.
  • The FOMC are expected to release economic projections and the FOMC statement at 7pm alongside the federal funds rate which is expected to be <1.50%.
  • The press conference will follow shortly after at 7.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1356 +0.13
GBP/USD 1.3347 +0.22
EUR/USD 1.1748 +0.05
AUD/USD 0.7556 +0.00

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 USD CPI m/m, 0.4% 0.1%
13:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.6M -5.6M
Tentative USD President Trump Speaks
19:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <1.50% <1.25%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference