Newsletter – 13th August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • UK economic data released Friday morning painted a fairly mixed picture for the Pound, but ultimately the key figure was GDP and the m/m print at 0.1% fell short of the 0.2% growth expected. The quarterly GDP print however was in-line with expectations with growth in the second quarter of 2018 at 0.4%, far better than the 0.2% growth in the first quarter and perhaps providing the Bank of England with some reassurance following August’s rate hike.
  • UK Manufacturing Production grew 0.4% during June, bettering the expected 0.3% forecast and also bringing an end to a previous 4 months of decline.
  • The UK’s Goods Trade Balance fell in June, with the deficit standing at -11.4Bn which was down on -12.5Bn in May and better than the -12.0Bn expected.
  • According to the early NIESR estimate, UK GDP will hit 0.5% growth in the current (3rd) quarter of 2018. That would represent the highest level of growth since Q4 2016.
  • There was impressive jobs data out of Canada Friday afternoon with the economy adding 54,100 jobs during July and the overall unemployment rate falling to 5.8%.
  • US CPI m/m 0.2% as expected.
  • The Turkish Lira was hammered Friday afternoon following President Trump’s decision to double the metal tariffs on Turkey. At one point the Lira was down 20% against the US Dollar.
  • The Euro also came under selling pressure Friday as traders and investors became concerned about the threat of contagion in the Eurozone off the back of the turmoil in Turkey.
  • Speaking Friday afternoon and in complete contrast to his Cabinet colleague Liam Fox, UK Chancellor Philip Hammond said the chances are that the UK will get a good Brexit trade deal. Mr Hammond also said the Government were considering an Amazon tax for online retailers.
Overnight

  • The slide in the Turkish Lira has continued this morning despite promises from the Turkish Finance Minister to have a place in place to calm markets. Turkey’s President Erdogan has called upon those with foreign FX and Gold reserves to convert it into Turkish Lira in a bid to stabilise the currency, adding Turkey would prevail in economic warfare.
  • The UK’s supermarket Giants have suggested the price of an average weekly food shop could rise by 12% in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Today
  • Even for a Monday this a rare, we have no data set for release today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1202 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.2742 -0.19
EUR/USD 1.1374 -0.32
AUD/USD 0.7273 -0.33

 

**No Data set for release