Newsletter – 13th April 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • We kicked off yesterday’s trading with a range of UK employment readings which were mixed overall. The Average Earnings Index was slightly better than expected at2.3% (2.2% Exp) but in contrast the claimant count change actually increased by some 25,500 when a decrease of 10,200 had been forecast. The overall UK Unemployment rate however remained at its recent historical low of 4.7%.
  • Having showed initial signs of strengthening following this data, the Pound eventually closed the day’s trading essentially where it has started against the majority of its counterparts.
  • Speaking yesterday, IMF Chief Christina Lagarde said Greece was on the right path on reforms but discussions on a bailout and the IMF’s role were only halfway through.
  • Into the afternoon and the Canadian Central Bank was firmly in focus and as expected the BOC opted to hold rates at 0.50%. In their accompanying statement the BOC did allude to faster economic growth than expected, but also stated it was too early to say that it was a sustainable growth path.
  • The CAD Dollar did rally in FX space following the initial statement and was up some 0.4% versus a number of major currencies including the US Dollar, Sterling and Euro. Those gains however were totally eroded following the BOC Governor Poloz’s press conference in which he said ‘a rate cut remains possibility if risks are realised’ and that overall the BOC ‘was decidedly neutral’.
  • The US Dollar weakened late yesterday evening following comments from President Trump. Mr Trump told the Wall Street Journal he thought the currency was getting too strong.
Overnight

  • Australian Employment Change 60.9K (20.3K Exp)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate 5.9% (5.9% Exp)
  • Aussie Dollar firmly on the front-foot following this better than expected employment data.
  • Chinese Trade Balance 164Bn (76Bn Exp)
  • Swiss PPI m/m 0.1% (0.1% Exp)
Today
  • Last proper trading day of the week as we head into the Easter weekend, with bank holidays across the globe tomorrow and next Monday.
  • Raft of key data due at 1.30pm in the form of Canadian Manufacturing Sales, US PPI and US Unemployment Claims.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1796 +0.30
GBP/USD 1.2556 +0.10
EUR/USD 1.0643 -0.20
AUD/USD 0.7590 +0.91

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
13.30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.4% 0.6%
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.0% 0.3%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 242K 234K
15.00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.1 96.9
15.30 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks