Newsletter – 12th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Very little in the way of economic data yesterday morning.
  • The Pound continued to suffer losses following reports that last ditch Brexit talks were deadlocked.
  • GBP/USD traded a three week low of 1.2961 shortly after 9am, whilst GBP/EUR traded down to a two and a half week low of 1.1523 in the same time frame.
  • Those losses however were quickly eradicated as Sterling began an impressive and aggressive rally that ran into the evening.
  • Having been negative on the day and one of the worst performers in FX space during the morning, Sterling eventually closed the day up over 0.8% against both the US Dollar and Euro, trading at 1.3123 and 1.1683 respectively by 6pm.
  • Unsurprisingly the reason for the Pound’s resurgence stemmed from multiple reports regarding Brexit with the overriding one being that the PM Theresa May was expected to travel to Strasbourg for more talks ahead of Tuesday’s ‘meaningful’ vote. Her potential trip undoubtedly fueling optimism that some or enough concessions could be made to save her Brexit deal.
  • There was a welcome rebound in US Retail Sales in January following the biggest decline in a decade seen in December. Retail Sales were up 0.2% in January, led by Sales in Internet Retailers (E.g. Amazon) and Home Centres (E.g. Home Depot). This modest rebound however won’t allay those fears of a slight slowdown following a run of recent poor data.
  • US Business Inventories m/m 0.6% as expected.
Overnight

  • Sterling currency pairs have continued to head North overnight and this morning following Theresa May’s trip to Strasbourg yesterday evening. According to the PM she has secured ‘legally binding’ changes that she will now hope is enough to get her deal through Parliament.
  • Sterling pairs are positive across the board this morning, with GBP/USD most notably up +0.60%, trading with a 1.3200 handle.
  • It wouldn’t appear Mrs May’s deal will receive the backing of the Labour Party, not that it was ever likely to of course, but following Mrs May’s amendments Labour Leader Corbyn says the changes were not anything close to what the PM had promised.
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence 2 (4 Previously)
Today
  • Clearly the focus of the day ahead will be the second ‘meaningful’ vote on Theresa May’s Brexit Deal. However there are suggestions the vote be delayed in order to allow Mrs May’s legal changes to be properly reviewed and digested by MP’s.
  • This morning there is a raft of UK economic data set for release with GDP and Manufacturing Production the headline figures due at 9.30am.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1720 -0.03
GBP/USD 1.3221 +0.57
EUR/USD 1.1278 +0.30
AUD/USD 0.7072 +0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP GDP m/m 0.2% -0.4%
09.30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% -0.7%
09.30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.2Bn -12.1Bn
10.00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 102.0 101.2
12.30 USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
TBC GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.2%
TBC GBP Parliament Brexit Vote