Newsletter – 12th July 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling advanced higher in FX space yesterday following some bullish comments from the Bank of England regarding the UK banking sector and it’s preparedness for a no-deal Brexit. The BOE’s Financial Policy Committee said the UK’s financial system would be resilient to a disorderly withdrawal from the European Union or even another shock derived from trade wars. These comments follow the BOE’s regular health check on UK banks.
  • In contrast to the Pound’s fortunes yesterday, the US Dollar continued to be weighed down from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments on Wednesday which signaled a rate cut could be on the agenda in the Fed’s next meeting.
  • Minutes from the European Central Bank’s meeting last month were released yesterday afternoon and they revealed that committee members agreed on the necessity of being ready to provide more stimulus to the Eurozone economy with the continuing threat of trade wars and the potential of a US rate cut.
  • US CPI m/m 0.1% (0.0% Exp)
  • US Unemployment Claims 209K (220K Exp)
  • The International Monetary Funds sees a prolonged period of weak growth ahead for the Eurozone and has urged the ECB to introduce stimulus measures accordingly. The IMF pointed to risks stemming from growing trade tensions, Italy’s mounting debt crisis and the potential fall out of Brexit.
Overnight

  • Ursula Von Der Leyen, who is likely to be the next head of the European Commission, has seemingly closed the door on any suggestions that the next UK PM could reopen Brexit talks. Boris Johnson, favourite to be PM, had pinned his hopes on renegotiating the withdrawal agreement without the controversial Irish backstop, however Van Der Leyen specifically alluded to the backstop adding she vows to defend the precious and important Irish backstop.
  • Japan Revised Industrial Production m/m 2.0% (2.3% Exp)
  • New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index 51.3 (50.4 Previous)
  • German Wholesale Price Index m/m -0.5% (+0.2% Exp)
Today
  • It is an unusually sparse data calendar today to end the week.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1127 0.00
GBP/USD 1.2532 +0.11
EUR/USD 1.1263 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.6996 +0.33

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP BOE member Vlieghe Speaks
10.00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.5%
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%