Newsletter – 12th December 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Prime Minister Theresa May met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday where she was reportedly told by the Chancellor that there is ‘no way to change’ the existing Brexit deal. However the Prime Minister said that there is a ‘shared determination’ among EU leaders to solve the Irish border problem.
  • PM May was in Brussels to seek assurances that the Irish backstop would only be a temporary measure if triggered to address the concerns of MPs. She also met Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker and Dutch PM Mark Rutte and said she was making progress on the border issue.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1058, traded a high of 1.1102, a low of 1.1027 and closed at 1.1033 representing a fall of 0.23%.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2559, traded a high of 1.2637, a low of 1.2480 and closed down 0.58% at 1.2486.
  • UK average earnings index 3m/y came in better than expected at 3.3% vs 3.0% and the unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.1%.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment came in at -17.50 vs -25.0.
  • US PPI m/m and core PPI m/m both came in better than expected at 0.1% vs 0.0% and 0.3% vs 0.1%, respectively.
Overnight
  • Australian Westpac consumer sentiment came in at 0.1% overnight.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.7387, 1.8287 and 142.22, respectively.
Today
  • The chair of the 1922 committee of backbench Conservative MPs, Sir Graham Brady, informed Prime Minister Theresa May that he had received 48 letters of no-confidence in her leadership. May will face secret ballot on her leadership and will need a ‘50% +1’ majority to continue. The ballot will take place between 6pm and 8pm this evening.
  • The Prime Minister made a statement outside number 10 this morning in response;
    • She stood defiant and said she would ‘contest that vote with everything I have got’.
    • She warned that a new prime minister would have to extend or revoke Article 50 risking a delay to Brexit or risking Brexit altogether.
    • PM May added that changing Conservative leader would ‘put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it’.
  • Should the Prime Minister survive the vote then her leadership cannot be contested for 12 months.
  • It is currently unknown how long it will take to make public the result of the vote.
  • Sterling has gained value against the euro and US dollar this morning by 0.34% and 0.40%, respectively.
  • At 1.30pm we expect inflation data from the US in the form of CPI m/m and core CPI m/m.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1070 +0.34
GBP/USD 1.2538 +0.42
EUR/USD 1.1324 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7207 +0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 USD CPI m/m 0.0% 0.3%
13:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%