Newsletter – 12th April 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • All eyes were on the UK yesterday as the latest inflation data was released.
  • CPI UK y/y came in at 2.3% when 2.2% was expected but core CPI came in soft at 1.8% vs 1.9% expected.
  • The inflationary pressure on food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcohol and tobacco and clothing and footwear has been offset by cheaper fuel and air travel.
  • Core CPI is the figure closely watched by the Bank of England at the moment as it gives an indication of underlying economic activity.
  • Sterling gained ground on the euro and US dollar with GBP/EUR rallying by 0.49% from 1.1718 to close the day at 1.1776. GBP/USD increased by 0.6% after opening at 1.2416 and closing at 1.2492.
  • Elsewhere JOLTS job openings from the US came in better than expected at 5.74m vs 5.59m expected and prior to that release, German ZEW economic sentiment also came in better than expected at 19.5 vs 13.2.
  • The tensions between the US and North Korea continued yesterday as President Trump used Twitter to state that North Korea is ‘looking for trouble’ and said that the USA will ‘solve the problem’ with or without help from China although the Chinese could be set for a better trade deal should they help the US.
  • Overnight China released inflation figures with CPI y/y missing expectations coming in at 0.9% vs 1.1% and PPI y/y coming in firmer at 7.6% vs 7.4% expected.
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is currently speaking at the International FinTech conference in London.
  • In term of data we have average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change and unemployment rate from the UK at 9.30am before President Trump speaks to Fox Business Network at 11am. He will likely discuss North Korea, the Syrian crisis, healthcare and tax reform during the course of his interview.
  • This afternoon we see US import prices m/m at 1.30pm before the Bank of Canada release their rate decision and and monetary policy report at 3pm. The accompanying press conference is scheduled for 4.15pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1764 -0.1
GBP/USD 1.2490 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.0616 +0.11
AUD/USD 0.7498 +0.01


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:00 GBP Mark Carney Speech
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 2.2%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change -10.2K -11.3K
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.7%
11:00 USD President Trump Speaks
13:30 USD Import Prices m/m -0.3% 0.2%
15:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
15:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
16:15 CAD BOC Press Conference.