Newsletter – 11th October 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • There was a raft of UK data released yesterday morning, and despite the fact it was largely disappointing it didn’t have much of an impact on the Pound:
    • GDP m/m 0.0% (0.1% Exp)
    • Manufacturing Production m/m -0.2% (0.1% Exp)
    • Goods Trade Balance -11.2Bn (-10.9Bn Exp)
    • Industrial Production m/m 0.2% (0.1% Exp)
  • Despite stalling a fraction in the immediate aftermath of these figures the Pound enjoyed yet another positive day in FX space making gains across the board as a deal between the EU and UK on the withdrawal agreement appears to edge ever closer.
  • GBP/EUR closed the day up +0.12% at 1.1446
  • GBP/USD gained +0.52% on the day, closing at 1.3210
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon EU Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier said a deal between the UK and EU could be reached by as soon as next Wednesday on the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc. He added that 80-85% of the terms had been agreed and confirmed the UK would be leaving the customs union and single market.
  • US PPI m/m 0.2% as expected
  • US Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 1.0% (0.8% Exp)

  • World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has said he is very concerned by the current trade tensions between China and the US, stressing that if they continued to escalate their tariff threats there would clearly be a hit to global growth.
  • Japan PPI y/y 3.0% (2.9% Exp)
  • French Final CPI m/m -0.2% as expected
  • Very quiet on the data front this morning.
  • This afternoon US inflation data will be in focus at 1.30pm.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1423 -0.22
GBP/USD 1.3193 +0.04
EUR/USD 1.1549 +0.28
AUD/USD 0.7088 +0.53


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
11.45 GBP BOE Member Vlieghe Speaks
12.30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Minutes
13.30 USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 207K 207K