Newsletter – 11th October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling got off to a solid start yesterday morning and managed to cling on to most of those gains over the course of the day. The Pound was lifted following a better than expected UK Manufacturing Production print for the month of August. Expecting m/m growth of +0.2% the actual figure was +0.4%, a second consecutive month of growth.
  • There was also a much better than expected print of +0.6%for UK Construction Output during August, it had been forecast as flat (0.0%).
  • On the flip side the UK’s Goods Trade Balance widened during August, with the difference between imports and exports surging to -14.2Bn. That comfortably surpassed the -11.4Bn expected, and continues to be a real cause for concern where Brexit and future single market access is concerned.
  • According to the NIESR the UK economy grew +0.4% during the third quarter of 2017.
  • Canadian Housing Starts 217K (211K Exp).
  • Canadian Building Permits m/m -5.5% (-0.9% Exp).
  • The IMF have raised global growth forecasts for 2017 & 2018. Global growth this year is forecast to reach +3.6%(+3.5% Previous) whilst 2018 has been raised to +3.7%(+3.6% Previous).
  • According to a Daily Telegraph report the UK could join NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) should a trade deal with the EU fail to be reached.
Overnight

  • Addressing regional lawmakers last night, Catalan President Puigdemont said that he recognised the mandate from the people of Catalunya to be an independent state, before immediately asking ‘the parliament to suspend the independence declaration so that we can enter in dialogue in the coming weeks’.
  • Spanish PM Rajoy has scheduled a cabinet meeting this morning to discuss the Catalonia situation, with an address to Parliament due at 4pm.
  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Kaplan again reiterated he is open-minded to a rate hike in December, but added he would need to see more signs of upward inflation.
  • Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment 3.6% (2.5% Prior)
  • Japan Core Machinery Orders m/m 3.4% (0.9% Exp)
  • Japan Prelim Machinery Tool Orders y/y 45.3% (36.2% Prior)
Today
  • It could prove a very quiet morning’s trading with no economic data set for release.
  • This afternoon remains fairly sparse with US JOLTS Job openings the only print of any note. The minutes from the September Fed meeting will be closely scrutinised later this evening.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1154 -0.23
GBP/USD 1.3193 -0.07
EUR/USD 1.1827 +0.17
AUD/USD 0.7787 +0.13

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12.00 USD MBA Mortgage Approvals -0.4%
12.15 USD Fed Member Evans Speaks
13.00 USD Fed Member Kaplan Speaks
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.06M 6.17M
19.00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes