Newsletter – 11th January 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK Manufacturing output is currently expanding at its fastest rate since 2008, according to figures released yesterday morning. The Manufacturing Production print showed output increased by 0.4% in November, bettering the expected 0.3%, and represented the fifth consecutive month of growth.
  • In contrast to the positive Manufacturing print, the UK’s Goods Trade Balance deficit widened to -12.2Bn during November, far worse than the -10.9Bn expected.
  • Despite the encouraging manufacturing data the pound was on the back-foot for most of the morning following a Telegraph report suggesting the UK’s plan for a bespoke Brexit trade deal with the EU was at risk of being scuppered by German opposition.
  • According to the NIESR the UK economy expanded at 0.6%in the final quarter of 2017, which would mean the economy grew 1.8% over the course of the year. According to the report this growth was largely driven by manufacturing and services sectors and the pick up in the global economy.
  • There were just the three economic releases yesterday afternoon:
    • Canadian Building Permits m/m -7.7% (-0.7% Exp)
    • US Import Prices m/m 0.1% (0.4% Exp)
    • US Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.8% (0.7% Exp)
  • Once again yesterday we heard the conflicting views of US Federal Reserve Members, this time with Chicago Fed President Kaplan suggesting he would like to put off any further rate increases until the middle of 2018, whilst Dallas Fed President Kaplan said there was a good base case for three rate hikes during 2018 .
Overnight

  • Australia Retail Sales m/m 1.2% (0.4% Exp)
  • Japan Leading Indicators 108.6% (108.7% Exp)
  • Credit ratings agency Moody’s has suggested the US Governments tax reform would be viewed as credit negative, as any additional growth stimulus would unlikely offset the negative impact on the governments deficit.
  • Canada increasingly believe that President Trump will withdraw the US from NAFTA.
Today
  • Not a great deal of data due this morning.
  • This afternoon minutes from the ECB’s December monetary policy meeting will be closely scrutinised, with US PPI m/m data the key economic print.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1290 -0.13
GBP/USD 1.3481 -0.17
EUR/USD 1.1938 -0.07
AUD/USD 0.7872 +0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.8% -1.0%
09.30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
10.00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production m/m 0.8% 0.2%
12.30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 246K 250K
TBC USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimisim 52.3 51.9
20.30 USD Fed Member Dudley Speaks