Newsletter – 11th January 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Euro was one of the strongest performers in FX space during yesterday’s trading. The single currency was bolstered following the release of the minutes from the ECB’s December monetary policy meeting which suggested the central bank could revisit its communication stance in early 2018. Markets took this message to mean the ECB could be getting ready to reduce their massive and unprecedented monetary stimulus program.
  • GBP/EUR was trading at 1.1300 ahead of the minutes, dropping to 1.1220 shortly after.
  • Similarly EUR/USD was trading at 1.1940, before accelerating up to 1.2040 afterwards.
  • There were also some lower key, but encouraging Eurozone data releases yesterday morning:
    • Italian Retail Sales m/m 1.1% (0.8% Exp)
    • Eurozone Industrial Production m/m 1.0% (0.8% Exp)
  • Key US data yesterday afternoon dissapointed, with Unemployment Claims coming in higher than expected at261,000 (246,000 Exp). The PPI m/m print also showed the price of finished goods and services dropped by -0.1% in December, against an expected rise of 0.2%. Weak underlying inflation still remains a concern for the US Federal Reserve.
  • According to a set of impact assessments commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Brexit could result in a £54Bn pound hit to the UK economy by 2030, and risk 500,000 jobs depending upon the type of deal struck with the EU.
Overnight

  • According to a Reuters source, UK PM Theresa May told executives from some of London’s top financial services firms that they were a priority in upcoming Brexit talks.
  • Japan Current Account 1.70Tn (2.19Tn Exp)
  • China Trade Balance 362Bn (237Bn Exp)
  • US Fed Member Dudley said three rate hikes this year was not an unreasonable starting point, given the US economic conditions push on the side of going faster. He also noted concerns around the new tax cuts and their potential to overheat the economy.
  • French Final CPI m/m 0.3% as expected
  • President Trump has cancelled a planned trip to the UK in February. Instead Rex Tillerson will make the trip to officially open the new US embassy in London.
Today
  • There’s a real lack of economic data set for release today.
  • However we do have the two high impact prints out of the US this afternoon, with inflation and retail sales data due at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1208 -0.38
GBP/USD 1.3572 +0.29
EUR/USD 1.2105 +0.62
AUD/USD 0.7876 -0.19

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.5%
13.30 USD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.8%
15.00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% -0.1%
16.30 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks