Newsletter – 11th April 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK GDP was in-line with expectations in February with month-on-month growth of +0.2%.
  • UK Manufacturing Production jumped +0.9% in February, far greater than the +0.2% forecast. Once again however the ONS suggested the better than expected print was a result of Brexit stockpiling in a bid to counter the potentially negative impact of an disorderly exit from the EU.
  • The Pound was largely unmoved following the economic data but still enjoyed a fairly solid day’s trading in FX space despite the looming decision of EU Leaders on Theresa May’s latest appeal for a Brexit extension.
  • GBP/EUR closed the day up +0.31% at 1.1626, whilst GBP/USD closed just shy of the 1.3100 handle following a +0.38% rise on the day.
  • The ECB kept their monetary policy unchanged yesterday, with the central bank stating it sees rates remaining at their present levels at least through the end of 2019. ECB President Mario Draghi gave little away during his press conference regarding future planned stimulus measures but did allude to further downside risks linked to global trade tensions and other uncertainties.
  • US CPI m/m 0.4% (0.3% Exp).
Overnight

  • The main story overnight is that EU Leaders have granted the UK a 6-month Brexit extension following 5 hours of talks. The previous deadline would have seen the UK crash out with no-deal at the end of this week but they now have until the 31st October to try and break the Parliamentary deadlock. The irony of the deadline falling on Halloween is not lost on us!
  • As part of the deal for providing the extension the UK must now hold European elections to the European Parliament. Failure to do so would see the UK leaving on the 1st June.
  • Speaking shortly after the EU’s 27 Leaders came to the agreement, EU Council President Donald Tusk said “Let me finish with a message to our British friends: This extension is as flexible as I expected, and a little bit shorter than I expected, but it’s still enough to find the best possible solution. Please do not waste this time.”
  • Minutes from the most recent US Federal Reserve meeting revealed members were split between optimism and caution. A number of members still see a further rate hike this year as appropriate, some believe the Central Bank should stay put, whilst a number even see a rate cut as potentially being on the table.
  • China CPI y/y 2.3% as expected.
  • China PPI y/y 0.4% as expected.
  • German Final CPI m/m 0.4% as expected.
  • French Final CPI m/m 0.8% as expected.
Today
  • No economic data set for release this morning.
  • This afternoon there are a couple of US figures followed by speeches from a number of US Federal Reserve members.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1598 -0.07
GBP/USD 1.3083 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.1281 +0.07
AUD/USD 0.7156 -0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 USD PPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 210K 202K
14.30 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks
14.35 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
14.40 USD Fed Member Bullard Speaks
18.00 CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks