Newsletter – 11th April 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • As highlighted in yesterday morning’s update there was no medium to high impact data chalked up for release yesterday and subsequently it proved to be a fairly subdued day’s trading.
  • One benefactor of the quiet calendar was in fact Sterling, with the Pound making solid gains on the day and consolidating above the 1.2400 and 1.1700 handles versus the US Dollar and Euro respectively.
  • Some of the lower impact releases included:
    • Italian Industrial Production m/m 1.0% (0.4% Exp)
    • Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 23.9 (20.1 Exp)
    • Canadian Housing Starts 254K (212K Exp)
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS: OpinionWay Poll: 1st Rd: Macron 24%; Le Pen 23%; Melenchon 18%.
  • The Bank of France cut their 1st Quarter 2017 GDP estimate to +0.3% from +0.4%.
  • Credit Rating agency S&P has warned the EU’s AA-rating could be under pressure should Brexit negotiations go south. The agency stated that the EU’s current rating was based on the assumption the UK meets its financial obligations upon leaving.
  • Speaking yesterday evening US Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it was appropriate that the Central Bank gradually raises interest rates toward a more neutral stance, and that the gradual rises were necessary to achieve sustained full employment without letting the economy overheat.
  • Japanese Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 22.6% (9.1% Previously)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence 6 (7 Previously)
  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -1.0% (-0.4% Previously).
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS: IFOP Poll: 1st Rd: Le Pen 24%; Macron 23%; Fillon 18.5%; Melenchon 18%.


  • UK Inflation data will firmly be in focus this morning with CPI, PPI and RPI measures all due at 9.30am. These readings will likely dictate Sterling performance for the remainder of the day.
  • For the rest of the day the only real data of note will be German Economic Sentiment at 10am and then US JOLTS Job Openings at 3pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1713 -0.05
GBP/USD 1.2408 -0.07
EUR/USD 1.0594 -0.01
AUD/USD 0.7506 +0.07


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP UK CPI y/y 2.2% 2.3%
09.30 GBP RPI Input m/m -0.5% -0.4%
09.30 GBP RPI y/y 3.1% 3.2%
10.00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.2 12.8
10.00 EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.9%
11.00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 104.7 105.3
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.59M 5.63M
18.45 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks