Newsletter – 10th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Such has been the pattern of the week there was little data to digest yesterday.
  • The European Union did however release their latest economic forecasts. With the EU commission now expecting the Euro area economy to achieve GDP growth of 2.2% this year, representing the fastest pace of growth in a decade. That has been dramatically raised from the 1.7% growth expected from their Spring forecast.
  • In stark contrast to the upwards revision to Eurozone growth, the commission slashed expectations for the UK. Revising UK 2017 growth down to 1.5% from 1.8% in their Spring forecast.
  • The Pound took a hit during the morning session off the back of these forecasts, with GBP/EUR tumbling from 1.1320 to a day’s low of 1.1261, it did recover somewhat to close the day around 1.1290.
  • The Pound fared better against the US Dollar, as the Dollar suffered it’s own bout of weakness during the afternoon following suggestions that US Senate Republicans are proposing delaying a cut in the corporate tax rate to 2019, going against Trump’s demand for immediate change.
  • Canada NHPI m/m 0.2% as expected
  • US Unemployment Claims 239K (232K Exp)
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecasts US growth of+3.3% for 2017.
Overnight

  • According to an EU official no breakthrough had been made on a Brexit financial settlement during Thursday’s talks.
  • There are reports that UK PM Theresa May could be willing to increase Britains Brexit Bill offer in order to break the current deadlock, with the go ahead from the Tory parties more eurosceptic members.
  • US Fed Member Williams expects the Fed to hike rates in December, followed by a further three in 2018. He suggested rates could move to a ‘normal level’ of around 2.5%.
  • French Industrial Production m/m 0.6% as expected
  • French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q 0.2% (0.3% Exp)
Today
  • UK Manufacturing Production is our key print this morning at 9.30am.
  • Worth noting that today is a US Bank Holiday, Veterans Day.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1290 -0.01
GBP/USD 1.3140 -0.02
EUR/USD 1.1638 -0.03
AUD/USD 0.7673 -0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.3% 1.2%
09.30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% 0.4%
09.30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.9Bn -14.2Bn
13.00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.4%
15.00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 100.8 100.7