Newsletter – 10th May 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There were no great moves in currency markets yesterday with a distinct lack of economic data set for release.
  • According to a Reuters poll released yesterday morning, economists surveyed now think the Bank of England will push a rate hike back to August. Previous expectations were firmly for a rate hike to take place in this Thursday’s meeting.
  • Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% (+0.1% Exp)
  • Canadian Building Permits m/m 3.1% (2.0% Exp)
  • US Producer Price Index m/m 0.1% (0.2% Exp)
  • US Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% (0.6% Exp)
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon ECB member Lane said that it was too soon to say whether the Eurozone was being hit by a slowdown in global demand or simply a decrease in the amount of slack in the European economy. These comments come in response to a recent run of weaker than expected growth and inflation data. Lane added they would have more data come June to make a better assessment.
Overnight

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates at1.75% as expected. The Kiwi Dollar however dropped in FX space as the RBNZ signaled that no interest rate rises would be planned in the short term.
  • Speaking last night US Fed Member Bostic suggested President Trump’s trade policies were the ‘most obvious risk’ facing the US economy at the moment, and that it could be causing some businesses to stall on investment. Bostic added that this delay in investment due to trade risks could undercut the effect Trump was hoping the recent corporate tax cuts would have.
  • Japan Current Account 1.77Tn (1.62Tn Exp)
  • China CPI y/y 1.8% (1.9% Exp)
  • China PPI y/y 3.4% as expected
Today
  • Plenty of data today despite a number of European Bank Holidays (Inc. France, Germany and Switzerland)
  • UK Manufacturing Production will be closely watched at 9.30am, before we move on to the week’s main event – the Bank of England monetary policy meeting at midday. Following a run of poor economic data and comments from Governor Carney the BOE are now widely expected to hold rates at 0.50%, however the split in the vote could be interesting and the accompanying rate statement will be closely scrutinised.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1429 -0.02
GBP/USD 1.3567 +0.17
EUR/USD 1.1870 +0.17
AUD/USD 0.7482 +0.36

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.2% -0.2%
09.30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.2Bn -10.2Bn
12.00 GBP BOE Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
12.00 GBP BOE Monetary Policy Statement
12.00 GBP BOE Inflation Report
12.00 GBP BOE Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 2-0-7
TBC GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.2%
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.0% -0.2%
13.30 USD CPI m/m 0.3% -0.1%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 219K 211K