Newsletter – 10th July 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling was hammered during Friday’s trading following the release of poor economic data in the morning. The month on month UK Manufacturing Production print was massively disappointing at -0.2%, against an expected rise of 0.5% in May.
  • That was closely followed by an increase in the UK’s Trade deficit, with the Goods Trade Balance in particular widening further than expected to -11.9Bn; -10.8Bn had been forecast.
  • The impact of these figures saw the Pound plummet in FX space. Having opened the day around 1.2960 and 1.1350 against the US Dollar and Euro respectively, the Pound quickly slipped to be trading 1.2880 and 1.1300 by early afternoon.
  • The Canadian economy continued to show signs of strengthening Friday afternoon with better than expected employment data:
    • Employment Change 45.3K (11.4K Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 6.5% (6.6% Exp)
  • Despite a slightly mixed bag of data releases out of the US Friday afternoon, the better than expected headline Non-Farm Employment print seemed enough to underpin some decent US Dollar strength into the close of the week:
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% (0.3% Exp)
    • Non-Farm Employment Change 222K (175K Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 4.4% (4.3% Exp)
  • The IMF raised their growth forecasts for Germany on Friday afternoon. The IMF now expects Germany’s economy to grow by 1.8% in 2017, that was revised up from 1.6%. Whilst 2018 growth has been revised up to 1.6%, from a previous 1.5%. The IMF cited soaring domestic demand and a rebound in exports as their reasons for revising these forecasts.
Over The Weekend

  • Speaking earlier this morning the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda said that the economy was continuing its moderate expansion, reiterated that the BOJ’s massive stimulus program would remain until inflation became stable above their 2% target.
  • UK PM Theresa May said she is confident the UK will get a good deal with the EU post Brexit, with the US, Japan, China and India already having shown a keen interest in UK trade deals.
  • China CPI y/y 1.5% (1.6% Exp)
  • China PPI y/y 5.5% as expected
  • Japan Current Account 1.40T (1.63T Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 20.3Bn as expected
  • Incredibly sparse data calendar today with no key data set for release. Could be a quiet one.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1301 0.00
GBP/USD 1.2885 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.1399 -0.01
AUD/USD 0.7595 -0.10


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 28.1 28.4
14.45 EUR ECB Weekly QE Update
15.00 USD Labour Market Conditions Index m/m 2.3
20.00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 12.1Bn 8.2Bn