Newsletter – 1 March 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling lost ground on the US dollar yesterday following an ‘optimistic’ and ‘presidential’ speech from US President Donald Trump and the fact that the US Federal Reserve members again reiterated that they would have to raise interest rates “sooner rather than later”.
  • This was Trump’s first congressional address but it must be noted that it was particularly short on policy specifics but he did pledge to improve jobs, overhaul the immigration system and reiterated his intention to provide ‘massive’ tax relief to the middle class.
  • The strengthening dollar caused GBP/USD to fall by just under half a percent – opening at 1.2443 before closing around the 1.2381 mark.
  • Sterling also lost ground on the euro with GBP/EUR closing at 1.1704 representing a drop of over a third of a percent.
  • We saw US preliminary GDP q/q come in weaker than expected yesterday at 1.9% vs the estimated 2.1%. This was followed by stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI and CB consumer confidence  data which came in at 57.4 vs 53.2 expected and 114.8 vs 111.3 expected, respectively.
Overnight
  • The Australian dollar was boosted by stronger-than-expected GDP data overnight. GDP q/q came in at 1.1% beating the widely-expected figure of 0.7%.
  • We also saw manufacturing PMI from Caixin manufacturing PMI from China come in stronger than anticipated at 51.7 vs 50.9.
Today
  • We have a relatively busy day of economic data to look forward to kicking off with manufacturing PMI from the UK at 9.30.
  • We then expect US personal spending m/m data alongside the Canadian current account figure at 1.30pm.
  • At 3pm we will here from the Bank of Canada as they announce the overnight rate and release their rate statement. We will also find out the latest ISM manufacturing PMI figure from the US at this time.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1731 +0.23
GBP/USD 1.2372 -0.08
EUR/USD 1.0544 -0.30
AUD/USD 0.7665 +0.12

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.7 55.9
13:30 CAD Current Account -9.6B -18.3B
13:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.5%
15:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD Overnight Rate 0.5% 0.5%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.0
18:00 USD FOMC Kaplan Speaks
20:00 NZD Gov Wheeler Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Brainard Speaks