Newsletter – 16th May 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1363 yesterday and traded a low of 1.1341 before recovering and then some closing at 1.1405.
  • UK average earnings came in slightly weaker than expected at 2.6% vs 2.7% expected which caused GBP/EUR to drop to the low of the day.
  • The UK claimant count change came in much higher than expected at 31.2K vs 13.3K whereas the unemployment rate came in at 4.2% as expected.
  • Flash GDP q/q from the Eurozone came in as estimated at 0.4% and the German ZEW economic sentiment came in at -8.2 vs -8.0 expected.
  • GBP/USD continued to trade within its recent range opening at 1.3555 and coming off to trade a low of 1.3451 before recovering slightly to close at 1.3502.
  • US core retail sales m/m and retail sales m/m both came in weaker than expected both at 0.3% vs 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
  • Empire state manufacturing was expected to be 15.1 but exceeded expectations with a figure of 20.1.
  • Preliminary GDP q/q from Japan came in weaker at -0.02% vs 0.0% expected. 
  • Australian wage price index q/q also came in weaker at 0.5% vs 0.6% expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.8026, 1.9601 and 148.76.
  • At 10am we have final CPI from the Eurozone before ECB President Draghi speaks at 1pm.
  • At 1.30pm we have manufacturing sales m/m from Canada alongside US building permits.
  • Following that we have capacity utilisation rate from the US with industrial production m/m at 2.15pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1393 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3497 -0.04
EUR/USD 1.1844 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7490 +0.25


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
13:00 EUR ECB President Draghi speaks
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.1% 1.9%
13:30 USD Building Permits 1.35M 1.35M
13:30 USD Housing Starts 1.32M 1.32M
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% 78.0%
14:15 USD Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.5%
15:00 USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.17%