Newsletter – 25th September 2017

Morning Bulletin 

Friday

  • We saw sterling weaken on Friday following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on Brexit. The Prime Minister didn’t give too much in the way of detail in regards to the negotiations and the markets reacted negatively to this.
  • GBP/EUR fell from 1.1368 to 1.1288 over the course of the day representing a fall 0.70 decline in GBP/EUR.
  • This sterling weakness was compounded by Moody’s downgrading of the UKs credit rating which raises speculation that the other agencies could follow suit.
  • GBP/USD came off by 0.65% on Friday closing at 1.3491 after opening at 1.3595.
  • Canadian CPI m/m came in weaker than expected at 0.1% vs 0.2% and core retail sales m/m also came in weaker at 0.2% vs 0.4%.

Overnight

  • We had the German Election took place on Sunday and although Angela Merkel won, the result raised uncertainties within Germany and reopened old fears about the EU. Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance recorded its worst result since the 40’s but remains the largest group in the German Parliament.
  • The right-wing, anti-Islam AfD performed better than expected and is not only represented in Parliament for the first time but is the third largest party.
  • Merkel will begin her fourth term as chancellor trying to put together a governing coalition which could take months to complete.

Today

  • The euro weakened significantly on the open this morning following the German election result, with GBP/EUR pushing back up to 1.1378 and EUR/USD gapping lower to trade around the 1.1908 mark.
  • We saw German Ifo business climate index come in lower than expected at 115.2 vs 116.00.
  • Later today FOMC member Dudley will be speaking in Syracuse at 1.30pm before we hear from ECB President Draghi at 2pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1367 +0.70
GBP/USD 1.3534 +0.32
EUR/USD 1.1905 -0.35
AUD/USD 0.7953 -0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
14:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
11:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks